“Opinion: What the 2024 electoral map reveals about America’s mortality divide”

Key points

• In 2024, mortality adjusted for age was 19.2% higher in Trump states than Harris states.
• From 2016 to 2024, gaps widened from 17% to 19.2% in all-cause mortality.
• Covid-19 initially amplified the gap, but chronic disease contributions persist beyond the pandemic.
• Heart disease and cancer mortality declined less in Trump states than Harris states over 2016–2024.
• Drug overdose mortality converged between Trump and Harris states starting in 2023.