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Global fossil fuel emissions are set to fall in 2026; total CO2 rises.

Deforestation and peat fires lift overall emissions about 1%, to 43.3 billion metric tons.

SourcesNew Scientist01:00 UTCPhys.org01:00 UTCGizmodo01:00 UTCThe Guardian01:00 UTCThe New York Times01:01 UTCAP News01:10 UTCThe Independent01:10 UTCLive Science01:15 UTCand 5 moreFollowSaveHighlight
New Scientist, Phys.org, Gizmodo, The Guardian, The New York Times and 8 more

By concise.news.

Key points

From 3 outlets
  • Fossil fuel CO2 emissions are projected to fall 0.4% in 2026. SourceScienceDailyUnited StatesLeanCenterCredibilityRatings: AllSides, MBFCRead at ScienceDaily
  • Total global CO2 emissions including deforestation reach 43.3 GT. SourceScienceDailyUnited StatesLeanCenterCredibilityRatings: AllSides, MBFCRead at ScienceDaily
  • Deforestation continues to push total emissions higher despite cleaner energy. SourceScienceDailyUnited StatesLeanCenterCredibilityRatings: AllSides, MBFCRead at ScienceDaily
  • Just 150 billion metric tons remain in the carbon budget for 1.5°C. SourceScienceDailyUnited StatesLeanCenterCredibilityRatings: AllSides, MBFCRead at ScienceDaily
  • Renewables and EVs meet about two-thirds of incremental energy demand. SourceScienceDailyUnited StatesLeanCenterCredibilityRatings: AllSides, MBFCRead at ScienceDaily
  • The decline is about 0.4% from 2025 levels. SourceNew ScientistUnited KingdomLeanCenterCredibilityRatings: AllSides, MBFCRead at New Scientist
  • Oil-emission reductions (-1.9%) partly offset by a coal rise (+0.6%). SourceNew ScientistUnited KingdomLeanCenterCredibilityRatings: AllSides, MBFCRead at New Scientist
  • Oil price spike from the Iran-related energy shock influenced consumption. SourceNew ScientistUnited KingdomLeanCenterCredibilityRatings: AllSides, MBFCRead at New Scientist
  • Renewables and EVs help offset emission growth through 2028. SourceNew ScientistUnited KingdomLeanCenterCredibilityRatings: AllSides, MBFCRead at New Scientist
  • Global Carbon Budget predicts CO2 from oil, gas, coal to flatline for 2026. SourceThe GuardianUnited KingdomOwner: Guardian Media GroupLeanCenter-leftCredibilityRatings: AllSides, MBFCRead at The Guardian
  • Oil emissions may drop 2% as consumers switch to EVs and efficiency rises. SourceThe GuardianUnited KingdomOwner: Guardian Media GroupLeanCenter-leftCredibilityRatings: AllSides, MBFCRead at The Guardian
  • Renewables expansion, especially solar and wind, limits fossil fuel growth. SourceThe GuardianUnited KingdomOwner: Guardian Media GroupLeanCenter-leftCredibilityRatings: AllSides, MBFCRead at The Guardian

Quotes

  • “It is an encouraging sign that the growth of emissions is slowing and decarbonisation efforts are starting to make a difference”
    Joeri RogeljSourceLive Science01:15 UTCSourceLive Science01:15 UTC
  • “So only together with the energy crisis did we bring the change in emissions down to negative”
    Judith HauckSourceLive Science01:15 UTCSourceLive Science01:15 UTC

Why it matters. Only 150 billion metric tons remain in the carbon budget for 1.5°C.

What to watch. Whether the decline outlasts the energy shock.

How it spread

At least 13 outlets ran it in the 36 h before this Brief.

05101510 Nov06:0012:0018:0011 Nov06:0013 outlets
  1. New Scientist, 01:00 on Tuesday 10 November
  2. Phys.org, 01:00 on Tuesday 10 November
  3. Gizmodo, 01:00 on Tuesday 10 November
  4. The Guardian, 01:00 on Tuesday 10 November
  5. The New York Times, 01:01 on Tuesday 10 November
  6. AP News, 01:10 on Tuesday 10 November
  7. The Independent, 01:10 on Tuesday 10 November
  8. Live Science, 01:15 on Tuesday 10 November
  9. DW, 03:58 on Tuesday 10 November
  10. The Japan Times, 04:26 on Tuesday 10 November
  11. ScienceDaily, 06:05 on Tuesday 10 November
  12. Semafor, 13:52 on Tuesday 10 November
  13. Fast Company, 18:56 on Tuesday 10 November
Sourceconcise.newsEach outlet in Coverage, at its first report of this story in the 36 h before the Brief. Outlets that ran the same wire story each count.From each outlet’s feed

Coverage

Oldest first · UTC

“Global carbon emissions set to fall in 2026 due to Iran energy shock”

“Carbon dioxide emissions are projected to fall 0.4 per cent this year, driven in part by higher oil prices resulting from disruption to shipping in the Strait of Hormuz”

Key points from New Scientist
  • Global CO2 emissions from fossil fuels are expected to drop in 2026.
  • The decline is about 0.4% from 2025 levels.
  • Oil-emission reductions (-1.9%) partly offset by a coal rise (+0.6%).
  • Oil price spike from the Iran-related energy shock influenced consumption.
  • Renewables and EVs help offset emission growth through 2028.
SourceNew ScientistUnited KingdomLeanCenterCredibilityRatings: AllSides, MBFCRead at New Scientist

“Fossil CO₂ emissions projected to decrease in 2026 amid clean energy growth and Iran conflict”

“Global carbon emissions from fossil fuels are projected to decrease by 0.4% in 2026—driven by expansion of solar and wind power and the Iran conflict—according to new research by the Global Carbon Project.”

Key points from Phys.org
  • Global fossil CO₂ emissions are projected to decrease by 0.4% in 2026 due to more solar, wind power and influence of the Iran conflict.
  • Oil emissions are expected to fall by 1.9%, while overall energy demand continues to rise.
  • Two-thirds of the energy demand increase is met by renewables and electric vehicles.
  • Total emissions in 2026 are projected at 43.3 billion metric tons, up from 42.8 last year due to land-use changes.
  • The remaining carbon budget for 1.5°C is about 150 billion metric tons, under four years at current rates.
SourcePhys.orgOwner: Science XLeanUnratedCredibilityUnratedRead at Phys.org

“Global Fossil Fuel Emissions Actually Fell in 2026. Don’t Get Used to It”

Key points from Gizmodo
  • Preliminary 2026 Global Carbon Budget estimates a 0.4% drop from 2025.
  • Emissions still rose in 2025 and atmospheric CO2 increased in 2026.
  • The decline is linked mainly to energy supply constraints from Middle East events.
  • Oil emissions fall 1.9%, gas emissions dip 0.3%, coal emissions rise 0.6%.
  • Renewable energy and EV deployment contribute, but not enough for a sustained peak.
SourceGizmodoUnited StatesLeanUnratedCredibilityUnratedRead at Gizmodo

“Slight fall in carbon emissions from fossil fuels as Iran war drives renewables push”

“However, authors of a comprehensive assessment to be presented at Cop31 warn talk of a global turnaround premature”

Key points from The Guardian
  • Global Carbon Budget predicts CO2 from oil, gas, coal to flatline for 2026.
  • Oil emissions may drop 2% as consumers switch to EVs and efficiency rises.
  • Overall fossil fuel emissions rise slightly in 2026 due to deforestation and land use.
  • Renewables expansion, especially solar and wind, limits fossil fuel growth.
  • Experts warn a true peak requires faster policy action and investment.
SourceThe GuardianUnited KingdomOwner: Guardian Media GroupLeanCenter-leftCredibilityRatings: AllSides, MBFCRead at The Guardian

“Heat-trapping carbon pollution drops, but scientists cite the Iran war rather than energy progress”

“Emissions of heat-trapping carbon dioxide from the burning of fossil fuels decreased slightly this year due to the Iran war”

Key points from The Independent
  • Global carbon dioxide emissions from fossil fuels fell 0.4% in 2026 to 42.2 billion tons.
  • The decline is attributed mainly to oil and gas supply shocks from the Iran war.
  • Oil emissions fell nearly 2% and natural gas declined 0.3%; coal rose 0.6%.
  • Experts warn the drop may be temporary and driven by geopolitical factors rather than clean energy progress.
  • Deforestation and peat fires caused total emissions to rise by 1% despite fossil fuel reductions.
SourceThe IndependentUnited KingdomLeanCenter-leftCredibilityRatings: AllSides, MBFCRead at The Independent

“Iran war helps fuel global drop in fossil fuel emissions — but there’s a catch”

“In the run-up to the COP31 U.N. climate change conference, scientists have revealed that global carbon emissions from fossil fuels are projected to drop by 0.4% this year, driven by growth in installed wind and solar power capacity, as well as oil price hikes caused by the Iran conflict.”

Key points from Live Science
  • Global CO2 emissions from fossil fuels are projected to drop 0.4% this year.
  • Drop driven by wind and solar growth and higher oil prices from Iran conflict.
  • China, U.S., EU, and Japan see reductions, India expected to grow.
  • Total energy demand rises, but clean tech moderates emissions growth.
  • Total greenhouse gas emissions from all sources rise slightly due to other factors.
SourceLive ScienceUnited StatesLeanCenterCredibilityRatings: AllSides, MBFCRead at Live Science
Show all 13 reportsShow fewer

“Iran war oil shock drives dip in global emissions, study shows”

“Global carbon emissions are expected to fall slightly in 2026, but not because of major progress on climate action. Instead, it’s high energy prices following the US attack on Iran that’s driving the trend.”

Key points from DW
  • Global carbon emissions are projected to drop by 0.4% in 2026, led by oil and gas declines.
  • Oil emissions fall 1.9% in 2026, natural gas down 0.3%, coal up 0.6%.
  • The decline is tied to high energy prices and supply disruptions from the Iran war.
  • Experts caution the dip is not a structural change but a temporary effect.
  • Overall CO2 emissions still rise about 1% due to deforestation and peat fires.
SourceDWGermanyLeanCenterCredibilityRatings: AllSides, MBFCRead at DW

“Global fossil fuel emissions set to fall in 2026, but total CO2 keeps rising”

“Global fossil fuel emissions are projected to fall in 2026 as renewable energy and electric vehicles gain ground, but rising emissions from deforestation threaten to push total CO2 emissions to a new record.”

Key points from ScienceDaily
  • Fossil fuel CO2 emissions are projected to fall 0.4% in 2026.
  • Total global CO2 emissions including deforestation reach 43.3 GT.
  • Deforestation continues to push total emissions higher despite cleaner energy.
  • Just 150 billion metric tons remain in the carbon budget for 1.5°C.
  • Renewables and EVs meet about two-thirds of incremental energy demand.
SourceScienceDailyUnited StatesLeanCenterCredibilityRatings: AllSides, MBFCRead at ScienceDaily

“More renewables and Hormuz disruption drive emissions fall”

““A reduction driven partly by geopolitical shocks is not a sustainable climate solution,” said Pierre Friedlingstein, an Exeter University professor.”

Key points from Semafor
  • Global fossil fuel emissions are projected to fall by 0.4% in 2026 due to solar and wind expansion.
  • Oil emissions are expected to decrease by 1.9%, tied to Hormuz disruption.
  • The decline is not considered a durable climate solution by researchers.
  • Total carbon emissions are set to rise about 1% due to deforestation and land-use change.
  • If current trends continue, remaining carbon budget for 1.5°C could be exhausted within four years.
SourceSemaforUnited StatesLeanCenterCredibilityRatings: AllSides, MBFCRead at Semafor

“The Iran War led to a decline in carbon emissions in 2026. It doesn’t mean we’ve turned a corner on fossil fuels”

“As the war in Iran raised global oil prices, oil emissions dropped and solar and wind power expanded. That led to a slight decrease in global greenhouse gas emissions in 2026. But it’s not a sign that we’ve turned the tide on fossil fuel use, experts warn.”

Key points from Fast Company
  • War in Iran raised oil prices, boosting renewables expansion and lowering fossil fuel emissions.
  • Global greenhouse gas emissions from fossil fuels were projected to fall by 0.4% in 2026.
  • Oil emissions declined by about 1.9% from 2025 levels amid higher gas and diesel prices.
  • Experts caution the dip is short-term and not a sign of a sustained energy transition.
  • POLICY: Clean energy gains offset emissions growth but continued fossil fuel use remains a risk.
SourceFast CompanyUnited StatesLeanCenter-leftCredibilityRatings: AllSides, MBFCRead at Fast Company

How it spread

At least 13 outlets ran it in the 36 h before this Brief.

0102010 Nov12:0011 Nov13 outlets
  1. New Scientist, 01:00 on Tuesday 10 November
  2. Phys.org, 01:00 on Tuesday 10 November
  3. Gizmodo, 01:00 on Tuesday 10 November
  4. The Guardian, 01:00 on Tuesday 10 November
  5. The New York Times, 01:01 on Tuesday 10 November
  6. AP News, 01:10 on Tuesday 10 November
  7. The Independent, 01:10 on Tuesday 10 November
  8. Live Science, 01:15 on Tuesday 10 November
  9. DW, 03:58 on Tuesday 10 November
  10. The Japan Times, 04:26 on Tuesday 10 November
  11. ScienceDaily, 06:05 on Tuesday 10 November
  12. Semafor, 13:52 on Tuesday 10 November
  13. Fast Company, 18:56 on Tuesday 10 November
Sourceconcise.newsEach outlet in Coverage, at its first report of this story in the 36 h before the Brief. Outlets that ran the same wire story each count.From each outlet’s feed

Coverage

Oldest first · UTC
SourceNew ScientistUnited KingdomLeanCenterCredibilityRatings: AllSides, MBFCRead at New Scientist“Global carbon emissions set to fall in 2026 due to Iran energy shock”

“Carbon dioxide emissions are projected to fall 0.4 per cent this year, driven in part by higher oil prices resulting from disruption to shipping in the Strait of Hormuz”

Key points from New Scientist
  • Global CO2 emissions from fossil fuels are expected to drop in 2026.
  • The decline is about 0.4% from 2025 levels.
  • Oil-emission reductions (-1.9%) partly offset by a coal rise (+0.6%).
  • Oil price spike from the Iran-related energy shock influenced consumption.
  • Renewables and EVs help offset emission growth through 2028.
SourcePhys.orgOwner: Science XLeanUnratedCredibilityUnratedRead at Phys.org“Fossil CO₂ emissions projected to decrease in 2026 amid clean energy growth and Iran conflict”

“Global carbon emissions from fossil fuels are projected to decrease by 0.4% in 2026—driven by expansion of solar and wind power and the Iran conflict—according to new research by the Global Carbon Project.”

Key points from Phys.org
  • Global fossil CO₂ emissions are projected to decrease by 0.4% in 2026 due to more solar, wind power and influence of the Iran conflict.
  • Oil emissions are expected to fall by 1.9%, while overall energy demand continues to rise.
  • Two-thirds of the energy demand increase is met by renewables and electric vehicles.
  • Total emissions in 2026 are projected at 43.3 billion metric tons, up from 42.8 last year due to land-use changes.
  • The remaining carbon budget for 1.5°C is about 150 billion metric tons, under four years at current rates.
SourceGizmodoUnited StatesLeanUnratedCredibilityUnratedRead at Gizmodo“Global Fossil Fuel Emissions Actually Fell in 2026. Don’t Get Used to It”
Key points from Gizmodo
  • Preliminary 2026 Global Carbon Budget estimates a 0.4% drop from 2025.
  • Emissions still rose in 2025 and atmospheric CO2 increased in 2026.
  • The decline is linked mainly to energy supply constraints from Middle East events.
  • Oil emissions fall 1.9%, gas emissions dip 0.3%, coal emissions rise 0.6%.
  • Renewable energy and EV deployment contribute, but not enough for a sustained peak.
SourceThe GuardianUnited KingdomOwner: Guardian Media GroupLeanCenter-leftCredibilityRatings: AllSides, MBFCRead at The Guardian“Slight fall in carbon emissions from fossil fuels as Iran war drives renewables push”

“However, authors of a comprehensive assessment to be presented at Cop31 warn talk of a global turnaround premature”

Key points from The Guardian
  • Global Carbon Budget predicts CO2 from oil, gas, coal to flatline for 2026.
  • Oil emissions may drop 2% as consumers switch to EVs and efficiency rises.
  • Overall fossil fuel emissions rise slightly in 2026 due to deforestation and land use.
  • Renewables expansion, especially solar and wind, limits fossil fuel growth.
  • Experts warn a true peak requires faster policy action and investment.
SourceThe IndependentUnited KingdomLeanCenter-leftCredibilityRatings: AllSides, MBFCRead at The Independent“Heat-trapping carbon pollution drops, but scientists cite the Iran war rather than energy progress”

“Emissions of heat-trapping carbon dioxide from the burning of fossil fuels decreased slightly this year due to the Iran war”

Key points from The Independent
  • Global carbon dioxide emissions from fossil fuels fell 0.4% in 2026 to 42.2 billion tons.
  • The decline is attributed mainly to oil and gas supply shocks from the Iran war.
  • Oil emissions fell nearly 2% and natural gas declined 0.3%; coal rose 0.6%.
  • Experts warn the drop may be temporary and driven by geopolitical factors rather than clean energy progress.
  • Deforestation and peat fires caused total emissions to rise by 1% despite fossil fuel reductions.
SourceLive ScienceUnited StatesLeanCenterCredibilityRatings: AllSides, MBFCRead at Live Science“Iran war helps fuel global drop in fossil fuel emissions — but there’s a catch”

“In the run-up to the COP31 U.N. climate change conference, scientists have revealed that global carbon emissions from fossil fuels are projected to drop by 0.4% this year, driven by growth in installed wind and solar power capacity, as well as oil price hikes caused by the Iran conflict.”

Key points from Live Science
  • Global CO2 emissions from fossil fuels are projected to drop 0.4% this year.
  • Drop driven by wind and solar growth and higher oil prices from Iran conflict.
  • China, U.S., EU, and Japan see reductions, India expected to grow.
  • Total energy demand rises, but clean tech moderates emissions growth.
  • Total greenhouse gas emissions from all sources rise slightly due to other factors.
Show all 13 reportsShow fewer
SourceDWGermanyLeanCenterCredibilityRatings: AllSides, MBFCRead at DW“Iran war oil shock drives dip in global emissions, study shows”

“Global carbon emissions are expected to fall slightly in 2026, but not because of major progress on climate action. Instead, it’s high energy prices following the US attack on Iran that’s driving the trend.”

Key points from DW
  • Global carbon emissions are projected to drop by 0.4% in 2026, led by oil and gas declines.
  • Oil emissions fall 1.9% in 2026, natural gas down 0.3%, coal up 0.6%.
  • The decline is tied to high energy prices and supply disruptions from the Iran war.
  • Experts caution the dip is not a structural change but a temporary effect.
  • Overall CO2 emissions still rise about 1% due to deforestation and peat fires.
SourceScienceDailyUnited StatesLeanCenterCredibilityRatings: AllSides, MBFCRead at ScienceDaily“Global fossil fuel emissions set to fall in 2026, but total CO2 keeps rising”

“Global fossil fuel emissions are projected to fall in 2026 as renewable energy and electric vehicles gain ground, but rising emissions from deforestation threaten to push total CO2 emissions to a new record.”

Key points from ScienceDaily
  • Fossil fuel CO2 emissions are projected to fall 0.4% in 2026.
  • Total global CO2 emissions including deforestation reach 43.3 GT.
  • Deforestation continues to push total emissions higher despite cleaner energy.
  • Just 150 billion metric tons remain in the carbon budget for 1.5°C.
  • Renewables and EVs meet about two-thirds of incremental energy demand.
SourceSemaforUnited StatesLeanCenterCredibilityRatings: AllSides, MBFCRead at Semafor“More renewables and Hormuz disruption drive emissions fall”

““A reduction driven partly by geopolitical shocks is not a sustainable climate solution,” said Pierre Friedlingstein, an Exeter University professor.”

Key points from Semafor
  • Global fossil fuel emissions are projected to fall by 0.4% in 2026 due to solar and wind expansion.
  • Oil emissions are expected to decrease by 1.9%, tied to Hormuz disruption.
  • The decline is not considered a durable climate solution by researchers.
  • Total carbon emissions are set to rise about 1% due to deforestation and land-use change.
  • If current trends continue, remaining carbon budget for 1.5°C could be exhausted within four years.
SourceFast CompanyUnited StatesLeanCenter-leftCredibilityRatings: AllSides, MBFCRead at Fast Company“The Iran War led to a decline in carbon emissions in 2026. It doesn’t mean we’ve turned a corner on fossil fuels”

“As the war in Iran raised global oil prices, oil emissions dropped and solar and wind power expanded. That led to a slight decrease in global greenhouse gas emissions in 2026. But it’s not a sign that we’ve turned the tide on fossil fuel use, experts warn.”

Key points from Fast Company
  • War in Iran raised oil prices, boosting renewables expansion and lowering fossil fuel emissions.
  • Global greenhouse gas emissions from fossil fuels were projected to fall by 0.4% in 2026.
  • Oil emissions declined by about 1.9% from 2025 levels amid higher gas and diesel prices.
  • Experts caution the dip is short-term and not a sign of a sustained energy transition.
  • POLICY: Clean energy gains offset emissions growth but continued fossil fuel use remains a risk.

AI wrote this story from the reports above. No person checked it before it was published. How concise.news works

How it travelled

Germany’s press was first, at 11:39 on Tuesday 10 November. None of Iran’s outlets we read had it.

  • A report of the story
  • A related report

Not drawn: El Comercio, Republica and The Daily Star. They ran only copies.

  • In the story
    1. Iran: none in what we read
  • Elsewhere
    1. Germany: 1 outlet, the first at 11:39 on Tuesday 10 November
      • Frankfurter Allgemeine Zeitung, at 11:39 on Tuesday 10 November
    2. Russia: 2 outlets, the first at 12:24 on Tuesday 10 November
      • TASS, at 12:24 on Tuesday 10 November, a related report
      • Interfax, at 08:09 on Wednesday 11 November, a related report
    3. Italy: 1 outlet, the first at 12:38 on Tuesday 10 November
      • TGcom24, at 12:38 on Tuesday 10 November, a related report
    4. Palestine: 1 outlet, the first at 13:03 on Tuesday 10 November
      • Al-Quds, at 13:03 on Tuesday 10 November, a related report
    5. United States: 4 outlets, the first at 13:52 on Tuesday 10 November
      • Semafor, at 13:52 on Tuesday 10 November
      • Scientific American, at 15:45 on Tuesday 10 November, a related report
      • Ars Technica, at 16:29 on Tuesday 10 November, a related report
      • Fast Company, at 18:56 on Tuesday 10 November
    6. Netherlands: 1 outlet, the first at 15:58 on Tuesday 10 November
      • NU.nl, at 15:58 on Tuesday 10 November, a related report
    7. Bosnia and Herzegovina: 1 outlet, the first on Wednesday 11 November, no time given
      • N1 BiH, on Wednesday 11 November, no time given, a related report
    8. Japan: 1 outlet, the first at 08:00 on Wednesday 11 November
      • Asahi Shimbun, at 08:00 on Wednesday 11 November
    9. Israel: 1 outlet, the first at 08:42 on Wednesday 11 November
      • The Jerusalem Post, at 08:42 on Wednesday 11 November, a related report

Iran

Press freedom 177th of 180 · RSF 2026

None of Iran’s outlets we read had it.

Sourceconcise.newsEach outlet’s first report of this story, by its country.Reports from 24 h before the Brief to 48 h after.Found after the Brief picked its stories. They don’t change its ranking.From each outlet’s feedPress freedom: RSF World Press Freedom Index 2026Checked 17:34 on Wednesday 11 November

Why it’s in the Brief

Ranked 3rd of 10.

Starting score
5.0
Public-interest topic
+1.0
Public-interest terms in the text
+1.25
High-reliability sources
+0.75
Corroboration by independent outlets
+2.4
Score
10.4

The ranking is the same for everyone.

Perspective mix. 4 center-left · 7 center · 2 unrated.RatingsAllSides and Media Bias/Fact CheckLean and credibility are curated from their public ratings.Unknown outlets stay unrated, never guessed.

Blindspot. No right-leaning outlet is covering this story. Worth knowing before you make up your mind.

Earlier

From the archive

In the Brief of Tuesday 10 November

Earlier

From the archive

In the Brief of Tuesday 10 November

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2
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SourcesAl Jazeera23:53 UTCCNN02:14 UTCEuronews05:28 UTCNPR12:15 UTCThe Washington Times13:15 UTCThe Washington Post13:27 UTCLos Angeles Times13:33 UTCForbes13:42 UTCand 32 more